early adopters and risk

I have this theory that early adopters tend to do well. That the people who published first on Kindle, tweeted first on Twitter, and uploaded their YouTube videos first have more success than those who try to break in later. Of course there are massive exceptions to every statement like that, but I do tend to think getting in on something early gives you an advantage. It’s easier for the early users to find you and spread the word, telling their friends what they have found in a small pool.

But when presented with something new, it does take risk allowance to go jump headfirst. To paraphrase Seth Godin, of course you don’t know if it’s going to work; you haven’t done it yet. You’ll find out. Pessimists need not apply.

Recently, Amazon announced that it was going to have a program called Kindle Vella, which seems sort of like Radish or Wattpad—stories published by episode that readers can unlock with tokens. It’s caused a lot of discussion, so I’m not sure I need to weigh in on it as to whether or not it’s going to work. But I do think if it does work, the early adopters will have an advantage. Those people who are willing to put the time in and take the risk will likely be the ones who do well. Those who are willing to let something NOT work may find that it pays off. Or not. But either way, it’s an opportunity to test my theory (hypothesis?) about early adopters.

It will be very interesting to see what happens.